https://election-dashboard-205356243841.us-central1.run.app A public tracker of the 2026 U.S. midterms: prediction markets, expert ratings, polls, and LLM-annotated social discourse — raw signals side by side, no blended forecast. Information Politics & AI Lab, HKU. en-us https://election-dashboard-205356243841.us-central1.run.app/briefing/2026-06-10 https://election-dashboard-205356243841.us-central1.run.app/briefing/2026-06-10 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT 2 forecasters shifted the Texas Senate race toward Democrats this week — the clearest sign yet that the seat is in play. — Republicans defend unified control of Washington this November, holding the presidency and both chambers. Across the 35 Senate races with active prediction markets, traders currently favor Republicans in 17 and Democrats in 16, with 2 inside the toss-up band; 0 of the 35 seats up carry no market. The House picture reads D 225 / R 194 across 433 priced districts (of 429 up), and governors split D 18 / R 14 of 38. These are market-implied leaders among priced races only. They are not seat counts, and not a forecast of final control. The sharpest overnight repricing came in Florida 1st District, where the Democratic side moved from 16% to 37%, followed by Minnesota 1st District (+8.1 pts). Thin markets under $2,000 in volume are excluded, so these moves carry real money behind them. 3 rating revisions landed in the last two weeks, the most recent on 2026-06-02 (Cook on Texas Senate). Rating shifts are slow, deliberate signals; when they align with market moves, they are worth noting. Each day our pipeline reads the 995 highest-engagement posts about the midterms across two presented cohorts (candidates and the public), and labels them on eight dimensions with a single versioned prompt. The month's most-discussed figure is Donald Trump (5,986 stance-coded mentions: 49% negative, 22% positive); the loudest policy fight is Government Operations and Politics, with 1,490 posts in support against 1,766 opposed. Among democratic institutions, Political parties as institutions drew the highest attack share (66% of 382 mentions). Candidates call for action in 8% of their posts, compared with 16% of the public’s.